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A recent article in the BBC News claims that Global Warming has stopped in recent years.  In fact, they claim, that there has been no warming over the last 11 years.  Meanwhile, CO2 emissions continue to rise, and climate scientists steadily posit that the climate continues to warm due to greenhouse gas emissions.  So what’s the truth?

Some aspects of climate are relatively simple.  For example, we know that when the greenhouse gas concentrations in our atmosphere rise, the planet warms.  We also know that the burning of fossil fuels is causing the greenhouse gas concentrations in our atmosphere to rise.  Even a seven year old can put these two facts together and conclude that burning fossil fuels causes the Earth to warm.

So why, if the science is so clear, is there controversy?  There are two important answers to this question.

First, there isn’t really a controversy.  As a naturally argumentative profession, never will every scientist agree about everything, but in the case of global warming, there is a clear consensus. Yes, there remain a few fringe scientists that grasp at fewer and fewer straws, desperate to deny that mere mortals could drastically alter their own environment in detrimental ways.  But, in the past three decades, every professional scientific society has released a statement that reflects the consensus view that human activity is warming the planet.  If you aren’t one for consensus, stick to the physical principals.  Either way, you’ll converge on a single conclusion.

The second answer is that the climate system is complicated.  This isn’t a cop-out. We are not asking you merely to take our word for something here, nor are we going to point out that some of these global warming deniers are confused.  Rather, we must understand that while the dominant factor that has influenced climate in the past 40 years has been human activity, there are other factors that still play roles in the yearly swings in temperature.  That is one reason why our annual average temperature is not merely on a straight course right off the top of the charts but varies up and down from year to year.  Accordingly, one must look at longer-term trends than single years to see the effects of global warming.  And one must also understand that weather, the instantaneous state of the atmosphere, is very different from climate, the expected patterns of weather.  It is the patterns here that are changing.

Let’s examine the claims from the BBC article.  First, they claim that the climate has not warmed in the last 11 years.  It is often said that the truth is in the eye of the beholder.  If we choose to ignore all of the data from polar regions, which is where the bulk of the recent warming has occurred, we can see that the climate has not warmed very much.  Include the data from the rapidly warming Arctic (with the rest of the planet), and a different picture emerges.  Several global temperature records exist, but the NASA GISS record (below) has the most complete global coverage, especially in the polar regions.  In the most recent part of the record, where data coverage is most reliable, we can clearly see that there is a continued upward trend in temperature (despite the aperiodic year-to-year swings).


Their other claim is that solar forcing is responsible for the decreased warming.  This may be partially true.  Solar output does play a role in our climate and is included in climate models that project our climate into the future.  These models also include climate coolings caused by volcanic eruptions (which are difficult to predict), and other natural factors that are known to influence climate.

When taken alone, without greenhouse gas emissions, these natural influences on climate do not predict the recent or continued warming (see top part of figure below – black line is the actual measurements).  So, the claims made in the BBC article are somewhat true – changes in incoming solar radiation do not forecast a warming climate in the coming decade and may lead to a cooling.  But add that to human-caused (anthropogenic) greenhouse gas emissions (center part of figure below) and the result (bottom part of figure) is still a warming climate.


So, our climate will continue to vary because of natural forcings (solar, volcanic, etc.) and because of natural cycles in the climate system (El Niño and others), but the overall warming from greenhouse gasses is inescapable unless we take action to reduce our emissions and reduce the concentrations of these gasses in our atmosphere.

UPDATED! In my first radio broadcast, and my first scientific debate, I went head-to-head with Roy Spencer, a famous global warming denier on the radio show Political Animals. You can listen to the show here. I debate Roy Spencer for about 30 minutes. Then I am on for another hour with the hosts and callers.

Update: You don't need to skip the first 25 minutes -- I cut it to jump right in to my part.

According to RealClearPolitics.com, Barack Obama maintains a strong lead in the Electoral Vote (270 electoral votes needed to win), but anything can happen on election day.

What are your predictions?

Chalk this one up under "Yet another funny Mac vs. PC story".

I find it hilarious and a bit ironic that we used to refer to PCs by the brand-name "IBM", just as some of us call tissues "Kleenex". Now, in a bold move, IBM is offering some of its employees Mac laptops or PCs running Linux in a break from the all-Windows environment that I still suffer from in my Department. About 100 IBM employees are now taking advantage of this program.

"Of the 22 testers who provided feedback, 18 said that compared with their previous computers, the Mac notebooks offered a "better or best experience," one said it was "equal or good," and three said the Apple machine provided a "worse experience," according to Dilger. Fully 19 of the participants chose to keep the MacBook Pro and use VMware virtualization technology to run Windows when needed."

Read the article.

BMW is working on a new concept called GINA (Geometry and function In N-Arrangements). Check out the new concept car:

...your job can have one of the biggest impacts on your happiness and health. While many things in your life affect your health, such as proper diet, exercise, breathing, relaxing, and so on, your job can have one of the biggest impacts on your happiness and health. According to a survey conducted by Monster.com, the 10 healthiest jobs to have are:

• Yoga instructor
• Personal trainer
• Professor
• Florist
• Activity specialist
• Chiropractor
• Choreographer
• Massage therapist
• Nutritionist
• Running coach

The also list the seven most stressful occupations as:

• Air traffic controller
• CEO
• Firefighter
• Police officer
• Taxi driver
• Farmer
• Junior high school teacher

As much as I loved working at Cornerstone as a Middle School Teacher, this should help everyone see that I made a healthy choice!

John Houghton was one of the chief science editors for the IPCC for the first 3 assessments. He is a devout Christian and is now giving lectures on why Christians should care for the environment (and that they are lagging behind other groups).

Houghton is one of the most respected climatologists alive today. He feels that all people have a responsibility to the wellbeing of the planet, and calls on Christians, especially, to help reduce the impacts of climate change. Here's a quote:

"Well, Christians believe that we have been put into the world to look after it and to care for the whole of creation. That's a message presented very early on in the Bible. Adam and Eve were put into a garden and they were told to look after that garden. That garden is Earth.
"Because of the enormous population we now have and the rapid development of technology, we are putting pressure on resources, and our care of the Earth is very far from what it should be. We should pay much more care to looking after the Earth in a sustainable way. The simplest definition of sustainability that I know is not cheating on our children, not cheating on our neighbors, or the poor people in the world, who stand to be very disadvantaged by things like climate change. And also not cheating on the rest of creation. We are in danger of losing thousands, if not millions, of species because of climate change.
"Of course, it's a very broad human responsibility, not just a Christian one. But on the whole, Christians have been lagging behind many other groups in their concern for the environment, care for the Earth, and care for poor people. And Christians, because of their beliefs, should really be out in front."

Read the full article and interview of John Houghton.

I often read the "Quotation of the Day" from the New York Times. Today's was rather poignant.

"This is the first year we’ve competed with the beaches." Carol Olsen, director of the Rockefeller Center ice rink, the famous ice rink in the middle of New York City, said yesterday, as the rink opened for the season, "This is the first year we’ve competed with the beaches."

Long-term forecasts suggest that this record-breaking warm spell is due to end and temperatures should drop to more-normal levels later this week. This is likely to be (according to those forecasts) the last really warm spell of the season.

Last month, over 600 people posed naked on the Aletsch Glacier near Bettmeralp, Switzerland for photographer Spencer Tunick to raise awareness of global climate change. Watch the video: Spencer is known for his photography of large groups of naked people in public settings. Most recently, he had photo shoots in Amsterdam and Mexico City.

Research that I've been involved in on the Greenland Ice Sheet was featured in NASA's Earth Observatory this week. The story provides an overview of recent melting on the ice sheet, the warming that is causing it, and the projected resulting sea-level rise. Photos highlight some of the magnificent and also daunting conditions that we face on the ice sheet.

Read the article here.