UN Climate Change Conference

When scientists model future climate scenarios, they often have two (or more) possible scenarios. Typically, they'll pose a worst-case scenario, often called "business as usual", or BAU, where we continue with current energy consumption practices, pumping obscene amounts of Earth-warming greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere. On the other hand, they'll often pose a best-case scenario, where greenhouse gas concentrations are controlled through energy conservation efforts and cleaner energy technologies. Both of these scenarios are then run in a computer model which simulates the Earth's climate system. The results generally show that under any scenario, we're in for some significant warming in the coming decades, but the model results vary widely. Given a BAU scenario, the models tend to predict three times as much warming or more than in the Kyoto-type scenarios. These results tell us that our conservation efforts today can make a difference in the near future.

With that known, why are some nations continuing on a BAU plan? As for greenhouse gas emissions, most developed countries are moving forward to reduce emissions, moving toward energy conservation and cleaner sources of energy. These nations, and their businesses are finding tremendous economic advantages to making some initial investments in new technologies. This is similar to buying a new energy-efficient water heater. You need to spend some money up front, but you will begin to save money from the investment immediately.

On the other hand, some developing nations are afraid to invest the money in these new technologies unless the US also makes the commitment. There are a few possible reasons for this. One is that they want to be able to compete with the US market. An other is that the people in China, for example, who can finally afford cars, think that they are equally entitled to the same luxuries that we enjoy in the US. And who can argue? Finally, some people believe that if the US doesn't make changes soon, we're all doomed, so why change if the US won't? Whatever the reason, all fingers are pointed at the US. We're the superpower and need to be setting a positive example. It's almost analogous to the surgeon general showing up pregnant to an AA meeting and getting drunk. It's insulting, knowingly wrong, and is setting a horrible example. Other nations look to the US for leadership and direction, and we let them down.

We need to make a change. We need a government that has less economic ties to the oil industry. But we also need to make good decisions as consumers.